Bitcoin is now being traded well over $ 20,000 – and will in all probability never fall below five-digit values again. And while the clean break above $ 20,000 is proof enough that we are in a massive bull run, the so-called Relative Strength Index broke into bull territory for the first time since 2018.
If you compare past crypto market cycles, Bitcoin is already much more bullish this time than it was back in 2017. This rally brought the crypto asset from $ 1,000 to $ 20,000.
And if things are already so bullish, could this peak be even higher than the course of the past cycle would suggest?
Beast mode: Relative strength index reaches bull market level
Today is December 17, 2020 – three full years after Bitcoin peaked in 2017 after it became known. This year alone, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization jumped from $ 1,000 to over $ 20,000.
It is only fitting that on the anniversary of the previous high, Bitcoin price broke the $ 20,000 mark to set a new record. And as if that signal wasn’t enough to let the world know that another bull run has begun, the asset’s Relative Strength Index is another key indicator that something magical is ahead of us.
For the first time since the bear market began, the monthly RSI is well in the bull territory. In the past cycles in the graphic below, each check mark highlights where this milestone condition was met.
The cryptocurrency is almost at one point compared to the last cycle that resulted in one of the first and only red monthly candle closings. That took place in December 2016.
December is cyclically an important month for the cryptocurrency, which acts as a major pivot point for the price action.
Bitcoin bubbles: current cycle more bullish than last, 6 months ahead
Bitcoin’s „bubble“ cycles are explained with the asset’s unique block reward mechanism and scarce supply. The idea is that, unlike gold and other commodities, Bitcoin will further reduce supply when demand increases.
The gold industry’s attempt to meet this year’s demand by increasing the supply available caused the precious metal to lose momentum. Since there can only be 21 million BTC at a time and its release into the market is controlled by a non-changeable computer code, this process cannot influence prices.
Instead, Bitcoin price rises exponentially – and the asset enters pricing until speculation exceeds utility, the bubble bursts and the cycle begins again.
Closely observing these cryptocurrency market cycles is key to predicting what bitcoin cycles to expect in the future .
The four-year intervals make these cycles reasonably predictable, and almost exactly at the right time, the bull market is back. If the cycle continues to follow the same path as it did last time, the parabolic phase and inconceivable prices are next.
However, there is one thing that worries the bulls and that is the fact that this cycle is actually more bullish than the last. Being significantly more bullish and getting ahead on the market cycle can’t be a bad thing for the cryptocurrency that has just caught the attention of billionaires around the world.
But it also points to the fact that things may be a bit excessive right now compared to the little data that is available. The above chart also shows that Bitcoin could be up to six months further than it was during the previous cycle.